tropical storm outlook

Tropical storm outlook

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N40W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 

IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED 

WINDS. THE WAVE APPEARS BETTER DEFINED IN THE MID-LEVELS 

INDICATED BY 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM GLOBAL MODEL 

GUIDANCE. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF 

THE WAVE AXIS...NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 

WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N59W 

TO 11N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 

LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS MOSTLY 

CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO 

LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL 

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF THE 

WAVE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 

WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 

18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E 

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W TO THE SW 

CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 

WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE 

CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. BROAD 

CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE 

WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP ACROSS 

JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S 

OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER 

ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE E 

PACIFIC ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 6N22W 

8N31W 4N44W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 

IS WITHIN 90 NM WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE 

ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 81W-93W...WITH 

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 93W TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS 

ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE 

WHICH CONTINUE TO FORM A BROAD CIRCULATION INLAND OVER SRN 

MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED 

MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS 

ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED 

BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE SW 

COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER 

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS 

FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR 

ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND 

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S 

CENTRAL GULF CENTERED E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT 

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS 

THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE 

RIDGING REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED E OF THE 

YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 

ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM 24N81W TO 21N82W.  POSSIBLE ISOLATED 

SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE UPPER 

TROUGH IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITH DRY AIR MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR 

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE 

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO N OF PANAMA. 

A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE 

WAVE ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER JAMAICA. THE MAJORITY OF THE 

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S 

OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED 

BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS 

CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. ALOFT...AN UPPER 

LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS 

ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 

WITH THE WAVE IS NE OF THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS E 

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W. THE 

REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS 

MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 

ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY 

BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE 

ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOVES W-NW. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO 

SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF 

THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING 

SUPPORTING BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF 

ACROSS FLORIDA TO N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER LEVEL 

TROUGH E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT 

NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INCREASING CONVECTION FROM 18N-24N 

BETWEEN 56W-61W NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS 

THE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED 

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 50W-54W. FARTHER 

E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED A 1027 

MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N28W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 

AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 

37W S OF 35N PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL 

RIDGE IS BETWEEN 38W-53WW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF 

THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE 

FAR E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 

TROUGH TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

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